E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSLongtime NBC News producer Bob Windrem explores what's known and unknown about North Korea's development of nuclear weapons. This is a companion piece to his article published today on msnbc.com, "Deciphering clues to North Korea's mysteries," in which he analyzes possible reasons behind recent North Korean belligerence.
By Robert Windrem
While the U.S. says it believes North Korea is far more advanced in the development of nuclear weapons than Iran, it does not know how many weapons the North has, precisely how big of a stockpile of plutonium the country has and even whether the purported nuclear tests earlier this decade were real.
U.S. concerns were significantly heightened after a Nov. 12 visit by Sig Hecker, the retired director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, to a new and highly sophisticated uranium centrifuge facility in the North. It was the first time the North had shown any westerner its uranium enrichment capabilities. Hecker saw what he estimated were 2,000 centrifuges, a number just short of what’s needed to enrich enough weapons grade uranium for a bomb. None was running.
Hecker told a South Korean audience he was particularly impressed by the sophistication of the control room, indicating the North had mastered not just the enrichment process but management of a large-scale program. However many nuclear weapons North Korea has, they were created using plutonium reprocessed at its now shuttered Yongbyon reactor complex.
Three U.S. officials questioned about the North’s program said information remains sketchy on virtually all aspects of the program, starting with the number of weapons, which officials had placed at about a dozen a few years back.
“We just don’t know,” said a senior U.S. official, when asked about the size of the stockpile. He said the new disclosures of a uranium enrichment program will make such estimates even more difficult. “It’s not a wild assumption they may have mastered this technology, and that is one step closer to enriched uranium, and that gets you that much closer to real trouble.”
Another official said the U.S. believes the technology and possibly even some centrifuges came from Pakistan. “I have seen nothing to suggest the technology didn’t come from Pakistan.”
The biggest problem with estimating any country’s nuclear weaponry is how much fissile material — enriched uranium or reprocessed plutonium — the nation had to begin with. While the U.S. has an estimate, which is highly classified, officials admit they do not know precisely how much is used for the weapons’ cores or how much was used in what were purported to be nuclear tests in October 2006 and May 2009.
“There remain questions on how efficient the nuclear tests were. They could have used more than you would normally use,” said the first official.
There are even lingering doubts about whether the tests were real and not a hoax in which a large amount of high-energy conventional explosives were detonated to mimic a nuclear test. Officials have long pointed out that the North has experience in such high-explosive tests.
“We’ve had two what we think are nuclear tests so far,” said the official. “You’re looking at this from a long way, and the point is although you do a variety of testing afterwards, there is always an element of doubt. Our scientists are fairly confident about it, but won’t give you a 100 percent guarantee that that is what happened.”
Could there be more if the North doesn’t get the kind of attention it has been seeking?
“There’s a risk we are going to have more testing,” said one official, adding that it could be tied to the transition from Kim Jong-Il to his son Kim Jong-On.
One reason why the North is so focused on nuclear weaponry is that its conventional forces have grown less capable as the nation has dealt with famine and other societal ills.
---
You can hear more from scientist Sig Hecker assessing the North Korean nuclear program in this interview with NBC's Richard Lui, and in the accompanying story.
Nuclear expert Dr. Siegfried Hecker recently returned from North Korea and found their nuclear capability 'stunning.' He discusses North Korea with NBC's Richard Lui.
Why are there "big fears?" More like, "big paranoia." No one has used nukes for 65 years because they know that they would be nuked in return if they did so. As a defensive weapon, used only as a deterrent, nukes give a country more security. (Which is why countries like N Korea and Iran want them.) But to use them offensively almost guarantees that a country like N Korea would be wiped off the face of the earth. I doubt they would ever consider using them in this way, because if they're smart enough to make them, they should be smart enough to know what will happen if they were to use them.
You would hope that they would be smart enough to understand what would happen if they used these weapons, but lets face it, North Korea has a history of making irresponsible decisions especially when it comes to the welfare of its citizens. If the country barely has any respect for its own people it's hard to believe they would have any for the safety and security of the global community. Smart or not, N. Korea tends to make decision based simply of of pride and prejudice.
While I generally agree with you Dr. Cat, my "worry" is that "we" just can't say no. Mankind does not learn well from history,we keep repeating the S.O.S. over and over again. A lesson not learned is bound to repeat itself.
If they start a war, which might happen, they will be invaded. Once that happens use of Nukes would be defensive. They would still be subject to massive retaliation.
As if China and Russia wouldn't prevent and defend against any nation using a nuclear weapon on North Korea. The Zionist propaganda machine is certainly in high gear to produce such utter stupidity. Both China and Russia have thawed their formerly cold relationship, rolled back ten's of thousands of border forces and military weapons and are now preparing for what they perceive as an attack by America brought on by the Zionist puppet masters pulling the strings on a great many American lawmakers via their lobbying organization consisting of a legion of foreign agents operating for Israel, AIPAC.
Since there are few facts, I wonder what is a "better" assumption to make: 1. NK does not have nuke 2: NK has nuke.
What if your assumptions are wrong, since you don't have enough facts. Will you be better off if you assume NK does not have nuke, and it turns out NK really do ?
Hope for the best but plan for the worse is the way to prepare a country. Otherwise, we would have another pre-WWII situation. But, of course, people tend to ignore lessons of history.
Maybe send Kim Jung Il a new copy of the Stuxnex (sp?) virus that worked so well for Iran.
I would have shut down all my systems too if an "expert from USA" was coming to visit. "All the world is a stage". At the very least, China backs N. Korea, China borders with Russia. Russia tracks all of our satellites. So it's a given that Kim Jung Il could have and should be assumed to have fissionable and fusionable material.
I think the best solution is to not buy Made in China. N. Koreans are starving. They will rise to the occasion and stop feeding their chubby cheek dictators. If the people's republic uprises, they will truly become the People's Republic and vote for their own leaders.
childlish thinking
These people of N. Korea are brainwashed into believing that their existance is tied to the fortunes of the "great leader" or beloved leader". They are not likely to rise up, they have no weapons, they have no freedom.
Perhaps the Apartheid state of Israel should get used to the North Korean, Russian and Chinese alliance with Iran and find the courage to sign a fair, balanced and lasting peace treaty with the Palestinian people and it's Arabic neighbors instead of trying to push America 24/7 to attack North Korea and Iran which would bring retaliation upon Israel and America by China and Russia who are already both preparing for such a regretful eventuality.
Suppose US stops buying from China and bring back the manufacturing to US soil, the result will be catastrophic. Consumers in US will be deprived of goods they want at affordable price and average family will suffer and standard of living drops. To revitalize US local manufacturing takes time and capital, a fact that US can hardly afford now.
Under this scenario China will have less fund from the loss of trade with US to buy further US debt and may need to call in the existng one. If this happens US government will cease to function effectively.
Perhaps if we sent one of those Hollywood assassins to get Kim Jong Il the world would be a better place. But then we'd have to disavow our actions. "Not us."
The nuclear capabilities that North Korea possesses are troublesome, but at least they don't have any kind of conventional delivery capability due to the fact that any weapon they created would likely be very similar to the 'Fat Man' bomb that was used over Nagasaki. In other words, it would be so large that they would need to drop it out of a plane or maybe put it on a ship that was supposed to dock inside of South Korea and detonate it once it's within range.
Either way, they really have no offensive nuclear capability, but the idea of them selling the fissile material is frightening since it's blindingly obvious that they have no scruples when it comes to selling weapons.
Wow you must have missed the memo! With North Korea's state of the art Uranium enrichment facilitys, they could build a miniature very portable Uranium based nuclear weapon and slip that weapon right in the precise location they wanted to detonate it. Game OVER Israel!
It doesn't take much to send a Fat Boy 60 miles, especially when you don't need precision bombing. Missing your intended target by a mile is OK. And why a Fat Boy ? A dirty bomb with, say, a hundred kilogram of low grade plutonium or even uranium that scatters radioactive material over, say, a few miles, will cause hundreds of thousands of casualties in densely populated area like Seoul.
What I do not understand is why Israel is being dragged into this, sure Pakistan hates the country but North Korea has no reason to attack there. Also the only way to use a nuke offensively is to use a tactical -nuke or a ballistic missile
as in the past NK has starved its people used there resourses to make wepons . china uses NK as a political wepon, dont think for one heart beat that NK is not expendable to china , as with Iran does any one think they wont use nukes people wanting to get to allah dont anyone in this country think before they express themselfs? love JC
Muslims don't "want to get to Allah," any faster than Christians want to get to Jesus. Deep down, faith can only take one so far. Even Mother Teresa had her doubts, as any sensible person would, which is why when faced with the business end of a gun, the word coming out of a typical person's mouth is, "Don't," or "Please," or something similar. I've never heard anyone exclaim, "Alright, someone's gonna shoot me! Jesus, (or Allah) here I come!"
In other words, no, I don't believe Iran would use nukes. Just like during The Cold War, it's all bluster, and it seems to be working on some people.
Since you are under the false impression that North Korea is expendable to China, you must believe Israel is also expendable to America also. Neither is remotely accurate although Israel has repeatedly and fully demonstrated that Israel is no true friend of America.
I won't consider members of the Kim family as "typical" or "sensible" as no "typical" or "sensible" people would starve his own people, and send all aid food to the army.
One last time. This doesn't seem to be working. This guy has a list and North Korea is between 2nd and 4th. Well I think it should be number one. The reason being is that North Korea over the years has done more to provoke problems in this region of asia than any other nation. From personal experience with South Korean Marines; at the time, in Veitnam. Koreans have nature or way about them that is just generally mean by our standards. (There is a story behind this statement but to long to elaborate on.) It's good to know that the North probably does not have a delivery system as yet for their nuke. That doesn't preclude them from sneaking one in somewhere say in a shipping container box. If the North chooses to fire on the South again. Look for all hell to break loose. The new defense minister in the South Korea won't want to be saying, he is sorry for not reacting or responding. As I commented on in an earlier statement. I hope we have a couple of boomers on station ready to go. (Thinking it is possible that the North if threatened by the present of the George Washington, may try to get to it. To really hurt something of that size, you need a big bang. I wouldn't put it past the North to put a nuke on a fishing boat and just try to get as close as possible to the Washington. Even if it didn't sink it, it would take days or weeks to decontaminate it. Effectively putting it out of the action. Not to mention the alpha radiation exposure to the crew. An attack of this nature would require a reactive response. I hope the administration knows what it is doing, There any number of the scenarios that could come about by showing the flag and projection of power in this manner.) Just out of general interest, I'm keeping a close eye on this ball game.
Just to tell you, alpha radiation is only harmful if ingested, do you mean Gamma?
I have to agree with Arm Chair Quarterback on this one. Regardless of what North Korea has, we must based on their own threats assume the worst. If they were to lob just one nuke toward Seoul, the devastation would be tragic and we must remember that the U.S. has approximately 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea, we would immediately be in the mix. The North has continued to antagonize the South and there is little left in the way of options other than retaliation. The ROK troops are a formidable fighting force and like Arm Chair Quarterback alluded to, they had a reputation for share brutality in VietNam. Both President Lee and the new Defense Minister are under immense pressure to retaliate at the next aggression by the North. This has the potential to get ugly very quickly. The ball is currently in Kim's court and we are all waiting to see if he keeps his promise to respond aggressively to any further artillery drills by the South along the border or disputed territorial waters. Regarding any future for reunification of the North and South, highly doubtful, control issues, and ideological differences would not lend themselves to a unified Korean Peninsula. Another fight between the North and South would be tragic.
Wow, a rather lengthy article to say 'we do not know anything' in regards to the number of nuclear weapons and the amount of Uranium 235 and Plutonium 239 North Korea has on hand!
The absurd notion it takes over 2,000 Uranium gas centrifuges must come simply from the nonsense that the writer had no clue as to what the gas centrifuges do nor their actual function. The NUMBER of Uranium gas centrifuges simply speeds up the collection of the mere .07% U-235 atoms from the Uranium Hexafluoride Gas (UF-6) feedstock fed into them. You could extract enough U-235 using only 500 Uranium gas centrifuges it would however take longer to do so!
That must really be a hindrance to the Zionists running Israels government that are the puppet masters pulling the strings on starting up the Korean war once again into a hot war cycle with the South Korean army knowing that North Korea likely has multiple nuclear weapons near South Korea's capitol Seoul and would likely use them if their country of North Korea were invaded by the South.
I expect another round of propaganda dictated from Israel to the media outlets essentially disregarding any concern for Americans marching to the mushroom clouds in Korea.
A. Smith
Exactly! I can add no more. You summed it up perfectly. Thank you.
I realize a great many Americans living in Korea are reading the Newsvine articles and are surprised and shocked by the sudden push for a hot war to occur between the two Korea's.
This Post is to you and the brave South Korean civilians that might be able to leave Seoul and South Korea before war breaks out and it is largely impossible to flee the country.
South Korea is vowing to continue their live artillery fire 'war games exercise' in the hotly disputed demarcation zone in the Yellow Seas this TUESDAY. North Korea has repeatedly warned South Korea that those artillery shells would land in North Korean waters or North Korean land and will respond militarily.
Tonight both CHINA and RUSSIA have independently called upon South Korea to NOT conduct that artillery exercise in the hotly disputed demarcation zone. It appears that South Korea is goose stepping to conduct those artillery exercises anyway.
I urge Americans living in Seoul, South Korea to FLEE from South Korea before Monday evening. South Korean civilian familys should in my opinion leave South Korea also if at all possible. Find a ship to take you to a neutral country, or a short flight to take you to a nearby neutral country.
With any escalation of the war between South and North Korea, it would be literally impossible to flee and leave South Korea for sometime and likely there will be millions all trying to do so resulting in large gridlock and virtually no movement. Don't wait until Tuesday, I urge you to leave South Korea NOW. With the present tensions so high, the window to leave looks to close this Monday Evening in South Korea. If nothing bad happens this Tuesday in South Korea, return when you feel the situation is more stabilized.
A. Smith - I have to agree with your suggestion for the residents of Seoul to leave the immediate area for a netural country but this is most likely financially impossible for so many but to stay and hope (pray) for the best.
What it's going to take is for China to put the all stop on their little problem child. What China says so goes N. Korea. What Russia says so goes China. Israel is another story altogether. It seems the US is willing to gamble too much in my opinion for this country to maintain its posture. China needs to reign in N Korea and we need to reign in Israel, somehow someway.
What if NK is doing all these following China's orders ?
Thanks Smokey for your reply. With several days notice, a inexpensive transport via a fishing ship or vessel from the South Korea shoreline to a neutral country would be inexpensive and prudent at this time. If an evacuation order were given, those in the know in Seoul are stating it could take a full 30 days to empty out that extremely highly congested State capitol. Meanwhile North Korea could and would demolish Seoul in 24 hours.
Israel see's the North Korean-Iran alliance as weakening Israel with each passing day. North Korea's recent disclosure of one of it's state of the art Uranium enrichment plants seemed to have pressed the fast forward button from it's previous 'pause' condition. Israel is fully aware the ballistic missiles in Syria and Iran now pointing at Israel came originally from North Korea via Chinese cargo freighters which Israel wouldn't dare hijack nor torpedo. Those same Chinese freighters are just as likely and capable of supplying Iran with some of North Korea's enriched Uranium and there is virtually nothing Israel can do about it.
South Korea is all about trying to save face after the fiasco of the artillery exercise that backfired and resulted in South Korean military and civilians being blown up by the North Korean artillery firing back. I expect South Korea to conduct it's 'war games exercises' and live fire 'practices' to provoke a response by North Korea despite repeated requests by North Korea, China and Russia to do otherwise.
Israel is all about trying to save face after Iran was able to fully fuel their civilian nuclear reactor and begin starting it up. Israel's Stuxnet worm/virus which has now hit a great many American business's and the Israeli Mossad Assassination of Iranian civilian scientists appear to be some attempt by Israel in the face saving global arena.
I was just in China and Seoul Korea this past September/October 2010. In a discussion with a small group of University students, the consensus was the torpedo of the south Korean ship was most likely NOT by the DPRK and the Korean University Students felt their government was trying to manipulate mine (USA). My question is why would we continue to engage in military maneuvers when the DPRK is feeling very vulnerable. China will NOT take a back seat if South Korea continues to provoke agitation by playing “war games” and maneuvers with the US in the area of the DMZ that was never accepted by the DPRK. The concern I have with the DPRK is that Kim Jong il is very ill and his youngest son, only age 26, Kim Jong Un (depicted as a 'hothead") might end up being his father's successor very soon. Kim Jong Un was promoted to the Workers' Party Central Committee and the Party's Central Military Commission at a party convention in September 2010, at the rank of four-star general of the Korean People's Army the day before, putting him in line to succeed his father. This could cause the DPRK to become very unstable and aggressive as Kim Jong Un will feel the need to prove his power to party officials and could lead to a potential war. This information came directly from China and South Korea in September and October 2010.
This is clear harassment by South Korea and engaging the US to back them.
The DPRK has mastered the enrichment process to "U235" along with facilities and programs as evidenced by the underground nuclear testing last year. Why is this a surprise now?
A curious case of alleged Israeli Spies smuggling in a suitcase nuclear weapon into the Galveston Texas Refinery Area:
RADIATION DETECTORS WERE TRIPPING AS CHASE REACHED 122 MPH; HOUSTON COPS SHOT CIA AGENT; SUITCASE NUKE FROM ISRAEL AND ISRAELI SPIES GOT AWAY!!!
Federal sources close to this case state CIA Agent Roland Carnaby had proof a "suitcase nuke" had arrived inside the U.S. from Israel via Israeli Spies on Tuesday. He was chasing the device and the Israeli Spies who had it. As local law enforcement was called-in, for some unknown reason the cops allegedly began chasing the CIA Agent instead of the Israeli Spies and ultimately shot the CIA Agent dead!
It also appears the CIA agent was shot and killed while handcuffed and laying face down on the ground.
http://www.fourwinds10.com/siterun_data/government/homeland_security_patriot_act_fema/news.php?q=1209752871
Sir
You are a genius, I to am on to this Zionist attempt to destroy America.
I had no idea how deep it goes.
Reports out of China (which are NOT being discussed in the US) state that South Korea has conducted war maneuvers 48 times in the past 12 months. This is clearly harassment when shelling and firing of large weaponry is carried out within miles of the disputed (non-treaty signed) DMZ line. Can anyone imagine how the USA would react to that experience?
Crap! I'm certain my Puget Sound home insurance policy excludes damage from atomic bombs. Does Progressive offer such coverage and can I get in on that!?
The fly in the ointment is that we have a glorified clerk acting as Commander in Chief, and the odds of him either mucking things up or having things buried in a bureaucratic mess are higher than for a Commander in Chief with experience under his belt