E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSBy Robert Windrem
NBC News investigative producer for special projects
U.S. officials, while declining to point to a single country that could follow Tunisia and Egypt into regime change, say they believe there are three countries whose protests could, under some circumstances, reach that same level of intensity.
The officials cited Yemen, Bahrain and Iran (not necessarily in that order) as being in a separate category from the rest of the Middle East nations. There may be protests and demonstrations in the other countries, but the protests are less widespread or more likely to be put down by brutal state security forces, U.S. officials said.
Here's a country-by-country assessment drawn from the accounts of U.S. officials:
Yemen: plenty of kindling
Yemen has been facing daily protests, and the nation is fraught with all sorts of issues: deep poverty and unemployment, a strong belief that the society is inherently corrupt, an active al-Qaida presence, and an unpopular ruler, who's been in power almost as long as Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak in Tunisa and Egypt. Overlaying that is a water crisis unlike any other in the world. There has been a strong security presence in Sanaa, the capital, but things could get out of hand.
Iran: Look to March 21
The level of Iran's demonstrations surprised demonstration organizers, say U.S. officials. While some reports put the number of demonstrators at a half-million, officials dismissed that number as exaggerated, but said the real number, "tens of thousands, maybe a hundred thousand," was larger than organizers expected. In fact, the vote in the Iranian Majlis (parliament) to prosecute Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mahdi Karroubi and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami was a function of the regime's anxiety rather than a realistic piece of legislation. While the protests, the largest since December 2009, are reflective of the Green Movement's strength, U.S. officials say they are uncertain that the protests can be sustained. Next time to look for widespread demonstrations: March 21, the Iranian New Year, known as Nowruz.
Bahrain: confidence in the streets
Bahrain is the most interesting to many U.S. analysts. Although there have long been demonstrations by the Shiite majority against the ruling Sunni royal family, this week's demonstrations show a great degree of confidence, fueled in part by the successes on Tunisia and Egypt. The demonstrators are demanding a new constitution that would lessen the power of the king, who now rules absolutely. There are reports that Iran is financing the protests in its role as Guardian of the Shiite faith, but U.S. officials have expressed suspicion about those reports.
Libya, Syria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
As for the rest, U.S. officials say they believe that Libya, Syria and Algeria will continue to have demonstrations, but face brutal repression, which the populace well knows.
The Saudi regime, the officials say, does not have anywhere near the animosity found elsewhere, in large part because of the nation's wealth.
Absolute power corrupts absolutly!!
Sunni the Shiite will hit the fan.
Dictators will not hand over power to the New World Order. This world wide movement of "change" and "democracy" is fascinating. Who will fill the power void?
"What we need is a One world leader...be he devil or be he god" -Dr. Benjamin Spock
Will the AntiChrist step into the limelight? Is the bioidentification chip the mark of the beast?
Hate to ruin the ending but there is not and will never be an anti-Christ. Sorry but it's very old, very bad science fiction.
Antichrist? No Cheney already had his run. Although he'll probably try to take credit for these protests. Ya know, to justify slaughtering 100,000 humans in Iraq for Oil.
Colin, then give up your computer because it uses energy which is generated by petro!
You aren't ruining anything by saying that. But I do hope you live to see the Anti-Christ.
How about revolution in ISRAEL ? That government killed much more than any other regime in Middle East !!!!!!!!!!!!
The main driver of these protests and the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt is overwhelming poverty. No opportunities for a huge group of young people. This recipe has created revolutions throughout history.
All this Middle East unrest during Barack Hussein Obama's presidency. Coincidence? I don't think so. When democracy demonstrators took to the streets in Tehran, Hussein stood idle and gave no words of encouragement to the freedom fighters as they were slaughter by the government. However, as the Egyptians rioted, with a good chance of the radical Muslim Brotherhood gaining lots of power, Hussein egged them on. Bill Maher may right for once when he said Hussein is no Christian. Will be as bold to say Hussein is a Muslim?
I don't think that you understand the situation. The ramifications the U.S. will and has suffered were different for both those areas. Obama's job is to protect the people of the United States. While I agree he could have done more, I don't think questioning his religious views are any way to go about this.
Are they freedom fighters or insurgents?
No, it's not coincidence. It's due to his following his predecesoor, who destabilized the region with his unwarranted, dishones invasion of Iraq. But I admire your perseverance.
Re: the freedom fighters or insurgents question by "yourliver", excellent question. I don't have a clue and I don't think there is a single answer. The situation in each country is different; they seem to mainly be sharing Egypt and Tunasia as a catalyst. I don't know of anyone who has offered a convincing analysis of whether this is good or bad, much less any specifics.
In my opinion, a true revolution is sweeping the world. Just my opinion.
If similar events occur in Iran as did in Egypt, prepare to have a much larger body count. Ahmadinejad and the Islamic clerics are not going to go quietly.
There are many causes for the instability in these countries. Usually ignored is the rapid population growth that feeds the problems of unemployment and poverty in some countries. Population doubling time in Yemen, for example, is 21 years. In Iran, it is 25 years, and Ahmadinejad is attempting to reverse recent reductions in Iran's very high birth rates.
Earl Babble? What sense does your post make? That sounds just like the thinking in 1940s Nazi Germany! Their problems are a reflection of their values and beliefs. Period!
Jed233, your response is actually the nonsensical one. If I understand Earl, and I think I do, he was making a comment on how increased populations put a burden on resources which can cause tension and unrest. Your reference to a maniacal dictator who was interested in eliminating all that weren't of the German (Aryan) race is ridiculous.
Whatever ya say, Steve.
Excellent retort Jed, Ivy Leaguer I suppose.
Perhaps Malthus was right,....
I hope and pray that the US DOES stay out of this boiling cauldron in the Middle East, end any measure foreign aid to every country there, and focus on America and our problems.....Look at what these "freedom fighters" did the the US female journalist!
"Regime change made Easy" and "Regime change for Dummies", brought to you by the Operations Directorate,...
Rixter, You must be a red-neck. We have been in a "conflict" AKA war with the middle east because of radicalism. If the U.S. were to step in and help the protesting middle eastern countries, democracy COULD positively impact both the economical and political relationships with them. Of course this would take time, but by stepping in, the U.S. is in fact solving some of their problems as well.
The next place could very well be here in the U.S. with all the "RICH ELITE" and their theiving lawyers that call themselves our goverment while they steal every dollar they can!!!!
Looks like history repeating itself ala the French Revolution.
Everyone has the government they deserve. Freedom is not free and cannot be given to anyone. If the arabs want freedom and democracy they must be prepared to give their lives for it. The Egyptians were fortunate that the military was on their side, although the outcome is still in doubt. We have yet to find out who will fill the void left by Mubarak. I believe the task in these other countries, especially Iran, will be much more bloody. I think other than verbal support we should stay out of it. I wish them the best and pray for their freedom. The potential democratization of the Middle East would be historic and could possibly bring a workable peace to the whole region.
How about "Our Man in Cairo", Omar Suleiman? The more things change, the more they remain the same,...
Steve-7777: U.S. citizens will never protest it's government. We depend on them to hand us back a few measly dollars here and there for our survival and sadly, I don't see us ever having the enough nerve to fight the rich elite. Until we are all facing the kind of poverty, limited recourses (water esp.) no one gives a damn.
Have you seen the movie "Soilent Green" lately?
It's "Soylent Green". Check it out.
The more handouts Americans get from our Nanny State, the less chance for 'revolution'. But when the money runs out, as it has, freeloaders will rise up and kill their benefactors, because they are STUPID.
Hopefully an uprising would still be possible after a collaspe as most Americans are armed to the hilt now but may not be when food and water become scarce. I wonder if the protestors in Bahrain and the other areas of the "boiling cauldron" are armed with more than just rocks...?
"You can take my gun from my cold dead arms,.." Charles Heston's, response to reporters when queried on gun control commenting on his membership at an NRA event,...
and to think, all this started AFTER a democratic government got started in Iraq. I guess G.W. wasn't as stupid as you liberals made him out to be...
Clean up the corruptions.
Listen the people sayings.
Dialogue and continue to dialogue to make democratic reform.
The pro-democratic people are their own people.
You all need to be made well aware that plans have long been in place for the US govt to prepare for similar events here, as currently happening in the ME.
Just consider:
1. FEMA camps
2. Militarization of the police
3. Patriot Act
4. Numerous consitutional changes that impact on YOUR freedoms
People should be very concerned about the militarization of the police forces:
We’re not talking just about computers and office equipment. Military-grade semi-automatic weapons, armored personnel vehicles, tanks, helicopters, airplanes, and all manner of other equipment designed for use on the battlefield is now being used on American streets, against American citizens.
Americans have long maintained that a man's home is his castle and that he has the right to defend it from unlawful intruders. Unfortunately, that right may be disappearing. Over the last 25 years, America has seen a disturbing militarization of its civilian law enforcement, along with a dramatic and unsettling rise in the use of paramilitary police units (most commonly called Special Weapons and Tactics, or SWAT) for routine police work. The most common use of SWAT teams today is to serve narcotics warrants, usually with forced, unannounced entry into the home.
These increasingly frequent raids, 40,000 per year by one estimate, are needlessly subjecting nonviolent drug offenders, bystanders, and wrongly targeted civilians to the terror of having their homes invaded while they're sleeping, usually by teams of heavily armed paramilitary units dressed not as police officers but as soldiers. These raids bring unnecessary violence and provocation to nonviolent drug offenders, many of whom were guilty of only misdemeanors. The raids terrorize innocents when police mistakenly target the wrong residence. And they have resulted in dozens of needless deaths and injuries, not only of drug offenders, but also of police officers, children, bystanders, and innocent suspects.
So people, it's great to egg on protesters in these other countries, and decry the use of FORCE for their police and military, but just be prepared for exactly the SAME, if not worse treatment HERE, should the people ever attempt to rise up against a corrupt establishment.
Rick,
So you think it is wrong for the USA to go to war against a brutal dictator, who has invaded 2 countries, started genocide on his own people and broken international treaties?
More power to the protesters in the ME. Are we not complaining of the same. Corruptions, no jobs and high food prices, losing our homes. We are just waking up and gearing up. I feel it in the air.....
Mubarak family fortune could reach $70bn, say expertsEgyptian president has cash in British and Swiss banks plus UK and US property.
the corrupted regimes, both Shah Iran and Mubarak of Egypt ARE MUSLIM TRAITORS!, supported by zonist US and Israel.
Mubarak’s planning exile to Tel Aviv.after Saudi Arabia rejected overtures.
Fact speaks for itself. Therefore,
IRAN IS INDEED A ROLE MODEL OF DEMOCRACY IN MIDEAST. AFTER LEBANON AND TUNISIA, HERE COME EGYPT, JORDAN AND YEMEN TO FOLLOW SUIT.
IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE, YES WE CAN.
HANDS OFF FOR ZIONIST US.
ZIONIST OBAMA PUBLICLY SUPPORTS REFORMS IN EGYPT BUT SECRETLY TO ENCOURAGE ZIONIST MUBARAK OF EGYPT TO HOLD OUT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TILL THE PROTESTERS GIVE UP, ACCORDING TO NEW WIKILEAKS !
islamophobia is very severe in us. i was denied a job at us postal service as a mail carrier because i am from egypt and a muslim, and it is so hard to find a lawyer for my case !
us shall look at itself before reaching out to muslim world and that muslim protesters are not buoyed in fantasy by zionist news media !
The military is not doing enough to keep people safe. Did you see that CBS anchor being sexually assaulted by a mob:
It's a real shame when a few bad people make everyone look bad, and the military knows this... they should step in and not allow for such things to take place.