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Pedro Ugarte / AFP - Getty Images
After Friday's rocket launch failure, North Korean military officials attend the unveiling ceremony of two statues of former leaders Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il in Pyongyang.
U.S. officials and others who track the nuclear capabilities and internal politics of North Korea say they don't see any indications that Pyongyang is planning an imminent nuclear test, but they caution that after the embarrassment of Friday's failed rocket launch it could move provocatively and quickly to do so.
"We consider it at any time a possibility," said one U.S. official who follows North Korea and who briefed NBC News on condition of anonymity. "Might kind of ruin the party or enhance it", he added, referring to Sunday's celebration of North Korean founder Kim il-Sung's 100th birthday.
The officials and experts who spoke with NBC News on Friday questioned whether the North would want to risk another, far greater embarrassment so quickly after the rocket failure. But if it does conduct a nuclear test, it will be following a long tradition of crisis escalation, they said.
The usual sequence in a North Korea crisis is threefold, said a second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity. First, the North does something untoward, and then the West protest, the official said. In response, North Korea does something to provoke even more reaction and get more attention, with the goal of ultimately driving the U.S. to the negotiating table. In this case that third piece could be the nuclear test, the official said.
"What surprises me is how quickly this is moving. Things that used to happen in years (in North Korea) are now happening in months," said the second official. "When things start spinning fast, I don’t think that's stable, that's safe. So that's concerning.”
David Phillips of Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights and a North Korea expert, said the government of Kim il-Un does not have to "go nuclear." It has at least two options if it decides to make noise on the international stage: a renewed attack on South Korean islands or naval vessels, or a nuclear test, he said.
"One would be a serious provocation," Phillips said of the first option; the other would quickly become a "global issue."
U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials and experts note that there have been recent preparations at North Korea’s P'unggye-yok test site that could signal a nuclear test, but said those preparations have not intensified over the last few days.
David Albright of the Institute for Science in International Security said his analysts have been monitoring the site almost daily using commercial satellite imagery, but have detected only some movement of earth at a tunnel, which may or may not be related to a test. Albright agrees that a test would quickly move the North's nuclear program to the forefront of global crises.
One thing that could fuel the crisis, he said, would be for the West, particularly Japan and South Korea, to ridicule the failure of Friday’s satellite launch.
"It makes the North Korean military mad,” said Albright, who has visited Pyongyang and met with senior North Korean officials. “If they feel that they are now perceived as weaker, they may react to re-establish their deterrence capabilities."
That, he says, could lead to a further escalation of tensions in the region.
"It would further lock in the view that North Korea does not intend to give up nuclear weapons and it would greatly worry Japan, which always feels it is in the North Korean bull’s-eye,” he said. “Among the public in both Japan and North Korea, it would greatly stimulate the debate that they should get nuclear weapons."
Particularly worrisome for the U.S., senior security officials told NBC News, is the possibility that North Korea would test more sophisticated weapons designs – hydrogen bombs or so-called "boosted fission" weapons, both with yields that far exceed those of nuclear designs. Either a "boosted fission" weapon or a hydrogen bomb would be expect to have yields in the tens or hundreds of kilotons, or many times greater than the bombs the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, at the end of World War II.
It is also possible the North Koreans could detonate a device fueled by highly enriched uranium (HEU) rather than plutonium, the officials said. . The North Koreans have used plutonium exclusively in the first two tests nuclear in 2006 and 2009.
Any of those tests -- HEU, "boosted fission" or thermonuclear-- would show that the North had more advanced weapons design and development capabilities, they said.
Indeed, U.S. officials said North Korea has done significant research into both "boosted fission" and thermonuclear weapons development in recent years. However, without testing, it couldn't be certain that such a weapon is reliable. One constraint, they said, would be whether the geology around the test site could withstand a test.
One U.S. official also said that U.S. intelligence might not be able to immediately confirm or contradict North Korean claims in the wake of such a test.
"If they do a very high yield test and get into multiple tens of kilotons, and they say it's thermonuclear, unless we have some kind of particulate sampling data, I'm not sure what we're going to say,” said one official. “And their statements could add to the confusion."
Phillips, the Columbia University expert, noted that a North Korean nuclear test could complicate U.S. proliferation priorities. What's more significant, he asked, an Iranian program that has been slogging along or a North Korean program with more than a dozen nuclear weapons, some of which that could have yields in the hundreds of kilotons.
“The Obama administration has been focused on Iran as the primary nuclear threat and proliferator. Many believe that Iran is a rational actor that will serve its own national interest and preserve the regime,” said Phillips. “The same can’t be said about North Korea. Successive generation of leaders in North Korea have shown that they are unpredictable and erratic. The recent satellite launch was designed to burnish the authority of its news leader. Instead its had the opposite effect internationally. ... There is now real risk of a nuclear test, which may now be accelerated by the launch failure and that’s the problem.”
And despite the failure of Friday’s rocket launch, U.S. officials say they expect North Korea to continue trying to develop a missile capability that could deliver a warhead big enough to destroy a U.S. city.
“The intelligence community has assessed for a number of years,” said the first U.S. official, “that this (launch) vehicle would be capable of reaching the continental United States -- beyond Alaska, beyond Hawaii -- with a payload of several hundred kilotons.”
Leave a Comment:
Korea has an impotent rocket. lol
Is North Korea nuclear test next? Well geez, let's hope so, maybe they'll blow themselves up.
I can see those little pecker heads, Kim Jong-Il and Som Dum Fuk sitting there saying, 'what's this button for'?
He's so ronery!
Jazz: That is what I came down here to say! Carry on :D
Mona: Do you know what they call their longest range, single-stage missile? The No Dong. (Seriously, that's what it's called.)
all i can say if they do a test then drop a fully tested one on pyongyang
I would say that a North Korean nuclear test is a foregone conclusion at this point. The only question that remains is what type of device it will be. The type of device they detonate will have a lot of bearing on what the international reaction will be. North Korea having nukes scares the hell out of the Japanese and a test of a more advanced design nuclear weapon may result in the Japanese pressuring the US and the UN to take some action to put a stop to North Korea's program. It might even result in the start of an new nuclear arms race in east Asia. The Japanese have been against nuclear weapons for a long time, but a test of an advanced nuclear weapon by North Korea may push them to reconsider as a matter of deterrence against the crazy North Korean regime. Of course a nuclear armed Japan would not sit well with China, so things could get very messy in a hurry. It might even prompt China to take action against their ally North Korea in order to persuade Japan not to pursue nuclear weapons. Who knows what will happen - this is just one possible scenario. However, I think that a North Korean Nuclear test is imminent.
to be vigilant is a good thing; to speculate or push the button is another thing..don't walk across a aerial tight- rope in violent winds.....
Well fortunately governments with the mentality of the North Koreans only want nuclear weapons in order to intimidate other countries and not to actually use them. Still it’s scary to think of such thoroughly insane characters having their fingers on the nuclear button. Perhaps the USA should bring the YAL-1 Airborne Laser out of mothballs and use it to shoot down every single test missile that the North Koreans launch. I realize it has a relatively short effective range but with North Korea being such a small country it should still be able to engage their missile without violating their airspace.
Maybe they already used it, hehehe. I would say put the nuke on the rocket and let them blow themselves up when it crashes. It's a win/win, lmao.
The U.S. can stop any attack. The counter attack would make all the senior North Koreans and the politicians ground hogs for the rest of their lives. THEY KNOW THIS! Let them rant and rave and test but in the end, they want their flat screen tvs, mercedes, prostitutes and satellite tv dishes and living underground the rest of their lives is not what they want.
The U.S. should get out of South Korea, hand it over to Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan, take our troops home and let the expense of "PROTECTING" South Korea to the "ALLIES" in the region. North Korea is not going to attack anyone. IF they attack and counter attacked the nuclear fallout will cover CHINA! North Korea will become a cinder. Let the other countries pay and maintain peace in their region.
some corners here in the Atlantic world will do anything to get another war going. This is scare story and hype. As far as the ridicule goes for the failed N Korean sat launch; how many tries did it take us, or any other major power? S Korea has tried twice already and failed, and there seemed little hullabaloo about all that. I notice that may comments bite the line about some hypothetical nuclear test. What is more significant, is the unprecedented publicity and and openness around the satelite launch, ans well as it's failure. For active and genuine diplomacy, that is a foot in the door, to resolve this insane international situation. It's not amazing, but it is a start, and certainly helps dispell tension, which certain members of the establishment wish to build toward confrontation; and, that is the bigger picture. Look how much demonizing is being blasted through the media outlets for war in Iran, and Syria, and how Russia and China are being put in the bogey man position. This is dangerous posturing, with financial Armageddon looming, and the already out of control situation in Euro land.
This is just awful. That area of the world doesn't need any more radiation. If N. Korea launches a nuke, I think we all know what will happen. Sure N. Korea will be destroyed, but some of that radiation will affect areas of the map that we all care about. We need to get them to reconsider, maybe if we helped them build better rockets we could avoid the loss of an entire nation. This is crazy, but we need to consider if not helping them build rockets would be worth the loss of all N. Korea.
Good idea, lets give them the technology to send nuclear warheads in our direction. No thanks, i'll take my chances.
Help them build rockets???!??
Yeah, let's help them exercise too by repeatedly heaving rocks at our skulls.
Are you daft? Help NK build rockets? We might as well be the Chinese for doing that. I don't respect a nation where they'll play war while its own people suffer. I rather see a Global effort to abolish their Dictatorship.
Erm, you do know that their nuclear tests have been done in deep caves, right?
Actually, you clearly don't know that, as you are spewing drivel.
Making a simple A-bomb work is easy - now if they learned how to make it small enough to fit onto one of these rockets would be a bad thing.
I wonder if the rocket actually failed, or if one of our ship based lasers punched a convenient hole in the side of the first stage. :D
Are you nuts?
Justin,this is an adult thread! Alice and her story is on another thread!Keep looking!
The U.S. will shoot down any rocket that North Korea sends up. They are monitored 24/7. I would not be surprised if the U.S. shot down the last missile. A thousand ways from sabotage to a bullet to laser.
North Korea is a joke. Let them starve themselves or if Russia and China want to help feed their good friends let them.
Were you born this way or did someone drop you on your head as an infant? Give them the technology to build a rocket that works?? That sounds like something Obummer would do.
Maybe they should master Paper Airplanes first!
Firing squad for all... the Larry, Curly & Moe NK space program will be set-back even further.
When will USA learn we should did something way before now against N. Korea.We need to act now befor it is to late. and tlking is not getting thre job done.
After all, it worked out so well when we did it to Iraq.
Really Dav?
And what do you suggest "we" do?
Do what? Let them starve themselves or become wards of the Chinese and Russians. They will probably blow themselves up and this chat will be worthless anyhow.
The notion of helping N Korea's delivery system is sheer lunacy. The loss of all of N.Korea is actually a pretty good deal... Let's see:
* They're a "Rogue nation".
* They are never thinking about any other country (I mean, Christ - even the French, who hate almost everybody, are better, more stable and rational citizens of the world).
* Their centralized economy has always been a failure (they can't feed their own population without external help).
* While not a true theocracy, the Kim family has practically declared themselves as dieties...
So, the loss to the world would be, what?
They may not be rocket scientists in North Korea, but there are still scary generals there. What to do about those crazies?
North Korea is gradually growing its capability, each failure gives them tons of information; US did the worst move by halting the food aid, any leverage is gone; their next Rocket might be in hanger will come out soon. US never got a good step inside N Korea. Target oriented policy is failing. I striongly recommend AID NK with food, Civilian Nuclear nuclear reactor and other help, so that the poor country should start thinking in some other direction.
Yet another ill-informed idea that'll strengthen a rogue nation with our demise on their wish list...PLEASE THINK PEOPLE!!!
You forgot or couldn't read the rules! NK was to abide by UN rules and not have another nuclear detonation of test anymore rockets!In consideration,Berrie agreed to send them hundreds of millions of tons in aid! We sent the initial portion of the aid and they decided to shoot the moon!You really need to read more!
Don't you all forget, China is North Korea's ally, if any harm comes to them China will intervene. All this is possible because you (and I) have enriched China by shopping at WalMart and all the other China depots.
We, as a nation, will lead to our own demise because of our greedy politicians and corporations. They will either destroy us or buy/own us with our own money. Long live corporate greed and their politician stooges.
This country better wake up soon before it's to late.
European-American
Let's hope their next launch goes straight up and straight down!
Ummmm, gee, I KNOW this is a comment board about North Korea, but I propose that we actually try to make an ally out of Iran. It is really counter intuitive, but I think it is really a stroke of genius which might actually work, at least if we are patient and careful in our approach (?) - RC
(Like I could give a sh-- about N. Korea's limp Dong.) - RC
You would be funny if you weren't so degranged!
Commander #1: We've analyzed their attack, sir, and there is a danger. Should I have your ship standing by?
Governor Tarkin: Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
It might - if it could fly for more than 5 seconds without blowing up.
I think we should get China involved. After all we are their biggest customer.
China is therir biggest aid supplier. They virtually have nothing of value for sale!They can't even grow enough crops to meet theior needs. That's bad considering it's an agrarian economy!
Those idiots just keep painting themselves farther into a corner.
Who the hell is Kim il-Un???
Far as I can tell, and I'm an expert on Asia as well, that ain't the guy's name. It's Kim JONG Un.
STAY IN SCHOOL
Where is NBC hiring from these days? Walmart?
Jeeeeeeeziz H. Tapdancing Christ, this is one of the biggest news fails I've ever seen.
Mentally ils' grandson!
PMSNBC couldn't find a good story about the poor downtrodden and misunderstood gays and lesbian group so they gave us this slop! Tomorrow ,they will rerun it unless someone in the Zimmerman case farts,then they will cover that.Love those 1500 commenters than repeat the same crap over and over!
You gotta love NK. Lucky they did not have a Nuke War Head on that rocket.
Vood-They will don't worry and the gutless US will do as usual zero.. Should have blown the little slant eyes when we could have with good conscience (?), I met my new neighbor. Vietnamese. The more I looked I swear I shot their grandfather in the late 60's. Good.
Do you get an erection when you think of killing? I bet you can't get one at all otherwise.
You could try beating off to back issues of Guns & Ammo. Would that make you feel like a man again? Or will it just drive home your failures as a man? Are there any little girls around you could beat up? Any little boys to play doctor with? Just tryin' to help!
A failed nuclear test would be fitting after their failed missile launch. Maybe N Korea should stop spending all their money on old Soviet technology that doesn't work.
Those mfkas are crazy. Next!
If you people are so upset about what there shooting off then why dont you just share info on how to build a real rocket so they can be there too? Everyone is entiteled to learn and anyone who thinks there any different than us or deserve less than us than boy do you have a reality check coming! Why do we always have to hold the 3rd world countries from having what we have or doing what we do. Everyone is so willing to help feed the starving children in other countries than why not let them advance so they can take care of themselves and we can focus on ourselves!
Laura, I think there's a difference between "feeding starving children", and blowing them up with a nuclear weapon.
Laura I am fine for sharing knowledge but there are certain things in this world that some 3rd world nations including NK should not have and one of them is being nukes....for one most of those countries are unstable and secondly the control of who they deal with will be non existent.... I tend not sleep well at night knowing that some potential loose cannon has control of a nuclear device but the fact they have been created is a fact of life and the US and other responsible nations should do everything in their power to exclude certain nations from joining this exclusive club....
laura r u a north korean spy asking us how 2 build succsful rockets????
You may wish to read The Impossible State by Victor Cha, the former Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, and former presidential advisor (several administrations). It is interesting that a number of offers have been made by several nations to help North Korea both with humanitarian aid and industrial capabilities. They have a very strange national psyche, which defies our understanding.
With any luck, the north koreans will have a faulty nuclear bomb test too, and wind up blowing themselves up.
Though the collateral damage would be just as bad for neighboring countries.
dazzling progress in the international slums and dazzling Failure in international confrontation
The failure of North Korea in the second phase of the launch intercontinental After the success of the first stage in all its entirety shows that the North Korean advance strongly in everything even in the level and phase failure
The world is still at the international level at the point of failure in the agreement and dazzling confrontation Xi Lai
Does this mean that the international slums after the war on terror, such as China, Iran and North Korea and by India, Pakistan and Russia's accession to them and any Muslim nuclear powers are the following to control or to the destruction on land
North Korea ... a perfect example of what leftist thinking leads to.
Culture of the slums in the use of force without mercy sometimes under the name of religion did not produce state of the law at any stage of history,
So, the PRK is 0-3 as far as rocket launches are concerned. Well, I have only three letters for us to consider: A.B.L. Folks that stands for Air Borne Laser. My guess is that we (the U.S. A.) have been target shooting their rockets and that we are 3-0.
That thing has been successfully tested many times over the last several years and its use would be almost impossible to detect... I believe the Navy has developed one for ship-borne use as well.
Keep in mind they could be in use for YEARS before it became official (nobody knew about the F-117 stealth fighter for years until one crashed in California and people thought it was a UFO).