• After 9/11, U.S. gave more visas to Saudi students

    By Garrett Haake and Robert Windrem
    NBC News

    Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari, the Saudi student arrested Thursday on charges that he planned to build bombs for terror attacks inside the United States, was granted a U.S. student visa after qualifying for a generous scholarship sponsored by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, according to the indictment against him. (Read the FBI affidavit supporting an arrest warrant. The affidavit describes the evidence against Aldawsari.)

    Aldawsari was one of more than 10,000 Saudi students granted student visas in 2008, an NBC News analysis of the visa program shows.

    Indeed, the number of Saudi students approved for entry into the United States has jumped more than fourfold since 15 young Saudis helped carry out the attacks on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. At the same time, visas granted to other Middle East nations dropped often precipitously or remained at the same level.

    The analysis shows that 26,744 Saudi students received US F-1 and F-2 visas in 2010, up from 6,836 in 2001. The numbers have steadily increased as the Kingdom has provided financing for students, believing the students' exposure to the U.S. and its education system would help US-Saudi relations.

    While overall non-immigrant visas from Saudi has dropped during the period from 2001 to 2010, the education visas have skyrocketed, in large part, say U.S.officials, because of the King Abdullah Scholarship program which sponsored Aldawsari.

    Aldawsari is the only recipient of the scholarship known to have been accused of terrorism.

    The King Abdullah Program annually sponsors thousands of Saudi students. It generously "provides the means to best world universities to pursue studies that lead to degrees (bachelors, masters and doctorate) and medical fellowships."

    Administered through the Ministry of Higher Education, it is one of the most generous programs anywhere. According to the program's website, King Abdullah Scholarships provide financial support for scholarship recipients. Among the privileges it offers are the following:

    • Monthly stipend
    • Full tuition and fees paid directly to the educational institution
    • Cost of attending conferences, symposia and workshops
    • Expenses for scientific trips
    • Allowances for books and clothes
    • Financial support for spouse and dependents
    • Medical insurance

    Aldawsari referred to the program as the "Traitor of the Two Holy Places Scholarship," a play on the Saudi king's most revered title, "Protector of the Two Holy Places." The FBI says he chose the program because, unlike other Saudi scholarships, it would allow him to go directly to the U.S. without having to first study in college-level programs in Saudi Arabia.

    A review of State Department records show that Saudi students got far more visas than others from the region. Students from the United Arab Emirates, for example, received a total of 1,233 student visas in 2010, compared with 1,246 in 2001. Yemeni students received 279 visas in 2010, compared with 376.

    Pakistani students had the most precipitous drop, declining from 3,880 in 2001 to 1,093 visas in 2010, a drop of 72 percent. Pakistani officials complain that the drop has dramatically hurt U.S.-Pakistani relations, because those seeking visas are the children of the most affluent and pro-U.S. Pakistanis.

    Garrett Haake is an associate producer for NBC Nightly News. Robert Windrem is investigative producer for special projects for NBC News.

     

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  • Some resorts promise more than they deliver

    On your last hotel stay, did the hotel match the brochure?

    TODAY's Jeff Rossen reported Thursday on misleading promotions that entice travelers with deceptive photos and fake customer reviews of resorts and hotels.

    You can watch the video below.

    And here are statements of response from representatives of TripAdvisor, the Federal Trade Commission, American Hotel & Lodging Association, Hyatt Regency Washington, and Sofitel Los Angeles.

    NBC's Jeff Rossen investigates whether resorts, hotels and travel websites engage in misleading promotion, enticing travelers with deceptive photos and fake customer reviews.

     

  • Check your bank's health in BankTracker

    The FDIC's list of troubled banks has grown again, according to this article from the AP.

    The number of banks at risk of failing made up nearly 12 percent of all federally insured banks in the final three months of 2010, the highest level in 18 years.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Wednesday that the number of banks on its confidential "problem" list rose to 884 in the October-December quarter, up from 860 in the previous quarter. Those are banks rated by examiners as having very low capital cushions against risk.

    That list is secret, but as a rough proxy you can check the health of any U.S. bank or credit union in the BankTracker from msnbc.com and American University.

    And check the list of previous stories in our BankTracker series.

  • Gadhafi controls $32 billion, turned down Madoff, diplomat wrote

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    Moammar Gadhafi’s regime controls $32 billion in liquid assets around the world, including hundreds of millions of dollars invested in U.S. banks, according to a confidential cable written by the U.S. ambassador to Libya last year. The leaked diplomatic message was distributed through WikiLeaks.

    The same cable reported that Libya had been approached by two men accused of running huge Ponzi schemes, Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford, but had resisted offers from them to invest Libyan funds with them. Madoff is serving time in a U.S. prison; Stanford has not been convicted of a crime and is awaiting trial.

    The cable is entitled "Technology of Tourism: Head of Libyan Investment Authority Discusses Opportunities for US Business in Libya," and was written Jan. 28, 2010, by Ambassador Gene A. Cretz, after a meeting with Mohamed Layas, the head of the LIA, Libya’s sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign wealth funds are the vehicles used by Middle East and other governments to invest oil wealth. The LIA, according to U.S. intelligence, is controlled by Gadhafi's regime.

    "Layas asserted that the LIA has USD 32 billion in liquidity, and noted that several American banks are each managing USD 300-500 million of the LIA's funds," according to the cable.

    Cretz also quotes Layas as saying, "We have USD 32 billion in liquidity,  mostly in bank deposits that will give us good long-term returns." Layas explained that beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. banks, not further identified, Layas said the LIA has extensive investments in the United Kingdom.

    Cretz wrote that Layas "said that the LIA has an office in London and preferred doing business there rather than in the United States, due to the ‘ease of doing business’ in the UK and relatively 'uncomplicated tax system.' He noted that the LIA's primary investments are in London, in banking and residential and commercial real estate."

    The LIA’s best-publicized investment was in a Canadian oil company, Verenex. Libya paid $316 million for the company in 2009.

    However, the Libyan claimed he had avoided being involved in two Ponzi schemes, those run by Madoff and Stanford. Layas denied press reports that LIA had invested $100 million with Stanford, but admitted being approached by both Stanford and Madoff.

    "Stanford had approached the LIA in the middle of his crisis, offering a 7-8% share in his investment scheme, but Layas had refused," Cretz wrote. "Layas also mentioned having been previously approached by Bernard Madoff about an investment opportunity, 'but we did not accept’." 

    Read the cable here.

    Other diplomatic cables on Libya are described in this New York Times article, "WikiLeaks cables detail Qaddafi family's exploits."

  • Yemen, Bahrain, Iran could be next Egypt, U.S. officials say

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    U.S. officials, while declining to point to a single country that could follow Tunisia and Egypt into regime change, say they believe there are three countries whose protests could, under some circumstances, reach that same level of intensity.

    The officials cited Yemen, Bahrain and Iran (not necessarily in that order) as being in a separate category from the rest of the Middle East nations. There may be protests and demonstrations in the other countries, but the protests are less widespread or more likely to be put down by brutal state security forces, U.S. officials said.

    Here's a country-by-country assessment drawn from the accounts of U.S. officials:

    Yemen: plenty of kindling
    Yemen has been facing daily protests, and the nation is fraught with all sorts of issues: deep poverty and unemployment, a strong belief that the society is inherently corrupt, an active al-Qaida presence, and an unpopular ruler, who's been in power almost as long as Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak in Tunisa and Egypt. Overlaying that is a water crisis unlike any other in the world. There has been a strong security presence in Sanaa, the capital, but things could get out of hand.

    Iran: Look to March 21
    The level of Iran's demonstrations surprised demonstration organizers, say U.S. officials. While some reports put the number of demonstrators at a half-million, officials dismissed that number as exaggerated, but said the real number, "tens of thousands, maybe a hundred thousand," was larger than organizers expected. In fact, the vote in the Iranian Majlis (parliament) to prosecute Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mahdi Karroubi and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami was a function of the regime's anxiety rather than a realistic piece of legislation. While the protests, the largest since December 2009, are reflective of the Green Movement's strength, U.S. officials say they are uncertain that the protests can be sustained. Next time to look for widespread demonstrations: March 21, the Iranian New Year, known as Nowruz.

    Bahrain: confidence in the streets
    Bahrain is the most interesting to many U.S. analysts. Although there have long been demonstrations by the Shiite majority against the ruling Sunni royal family, this week's demonstrations show a great degree of confidence, fueled in part by the successes on Tunisia and Egypt. The demonstrators are demanding a new constitution that would lessen the power of the king, who now rules absolutely. There are reports that Iran is financing the protests in its role as Guardian of the Shiite faith, but U.S. officials have expressed suspicion about those reports.

    Libya, Syria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia
    As for the rest, U.S. officials say they believe that Libya, Syria and Algeria will continue to have demonstrations, but face brutal repression, which the populace well knows.

    The Saudi regime, the officials say, does not have anywhere near the animosity found elsewhere, in large part because of the nation's wealth.

     

  • JPMorgan Chase seeks to reverse overcharges for soldiers' mortgages

    Lisa Myers and Sarah Heidarpour of NBC News report...

    JPMorgan Chase moved on Tuesday to make amends for its treatment of servicemen and women on mortgage loans over the last few years. After an investigative report by NBC News, Chase has admitted that it overcharged 4,500 troops and wrongly foreclosed on 18 of them.

    Today the bank said it will:

    • Lower the mortgage interest rate for active duty military to 4 percent (2 points less than required by law).
    • Start an enhanced modification program for anyone serving in the military after Sept. 11, 2001. Yes, over the past decade. This program will be for anyone delinquent or having problems paying the mortgage.
    • Set up a special 24-hour hotline staffed by experts.
    • Refuse to foreclose on any active-duty military personnel.
    • Donate 1,000 homes to military families and veterans over the next five years in conjunction with its non-profit partners.
    • Offer more jobs for veterans.

    For more information, see our previous story on msnbc.com: Overcharges on soldiers' mortgages investigated.

    The chairman and CEO of the New York bank, Jamie Dimon, said in a news release that the new programs "are a start, but in no way a finish."

    "This company has a great history of honoring military and veterans, and the mistakes we made on military foreclosures are a painful aberration on that track record," Dimon said. "We deeply apologize to our military customers and their families for these mistakes. We cannot undo them, but we can take accountability for them, fix them and learn from them."

    A South Carolina lawyer representing some of the servicemembers mistreated by Chase, Dick Harpootlian, offered this reaction: "When I was prosecuting cases, I never had a defendant who got caught breaking the law that didn't want to give back what they took and promise to lead a better life."

    The full news release from Chase
    JPMorgan Chase Announces New Programs for Military and Veterans

    Commits to lower SCRA rate and increasing modifications, jobs, training, and home ownership assistance for military and veterans

    NEW YORK, February 15, 2011 - JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) announced today it will significantly enhance its programs to help military and veteran customers.              
                           
    "The programs we are announcing today are a start, but in no way a finish," said Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase.  "This company has a great history of honoring military and veterans, and the mistakes we made on military foreclosures are a painful aberration on that track record.  We deeply apologize to our military customers and their families for these mistakes.  We cannot undo them, but we can take accountability for them, fix them and learn from them.  Today we want to begin a new way forward with the military and veteran community to make serving them a core part of how we operate our business every day.  Our servicemen and servicewomen deserve nothing less."                       

    The new Chase programs announced today are:

    Reduced Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA) Pricing
    Effective 4/1/11, subject to any required approvals, Chase will put in place a rebate or similar program for SCRA-protected military personnel, which will lower eligible borrowers' effective mortgage interest rate to 4% while on active duty and for a year thereafter.  That maximum rate is 2% lower than the 6% rate currently required by SCRA.

    Military Modification Program
    Beginning 4/1/11, Chase will introduce an enhanced modification program for all members of the military who have served on active duty as far back as 9/11/01.  The program will be offered to those who are delinquent or having trouble making their mortgage payments.  Subject to the required regulatory and investor approvals, the program will go beyond the government's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) requirements.  In addition, in cases when we modify any Chase-owned or Chase-serviced primary residential mortgage, if there is a second mortgage on the same property that is also owned by Chase, we will modify the interest rate on the second to 1%. 

    Home Ownership Assistance
    Chase will not foreclose on any currently deployed active military personnel.  This change goes beyond current SCRA requirements, which protects military borrowers against foreclosure only if they took out their loans prior to going on active duty.

    Chase believes we now have the systems and controls in place to avoid wrongful foreclosure proceedings on any military covered by SCRA.  In cases where we have mistakenly foreclosed on military borrowers who should have been covered by SCRA, in addition to rescinding the sale, we will forgive all their remaining mortgage debt.  Going forward, if we ever have a wrongful foreclosure sale on an SCRA covered customer, we will forgive all of their remaining mortgage debt, as well. 

    Chase will donate 1,000 homes to military and veterans over the next five years through our non-profit partners.

    By the end of 2011, Chase will open five new Chase Homeownership Centers in cities near the following large military bases: Ft. Hood (Killeen), Texas; Naval Station Norfolk (Norfolk), Virginia; Ft. Bragg/Pope Air Force Base (Fayetteville), North Carolina; Camp Lejeune (Jacksonville), North Carolina; Ft. Campbell (Clarksville, TN), Kentucky.

     In 2011, Chase will host 10 borrower outreach events near large military bases.

    Chase will staff all of its Homeownership Centers with employees specifically trained in SCRA, military issues and Chase special military programs.  

    Jobs
    JPMorgan Chase will take significant measurable steps to offer jobs and training to veterans. The company:

    Will form an alliance with other major corporate employers to commit to hire 100,000 military and veterans in total over the next ten years.  We have already received commitments from several corporate partners and have reached out to many others.  We will announce full details of the alliance in the coming weeks. 

    Will require all of its vendors to disclose its military hiring practices and will make contract decisions in part based on how strong those programs are.  This is in addition to our current practice of requiring vendors to disclose their diversity practices. 

    Education and Training
    Through its groundbreaking collaboration with Syracuse University, JPMorgan Chase will now offer a Technology Education certificate exclusively for veterans to prepare them for technology careers.  All military who have served on active duty going back to 9/11/01 will be eligible to apply for the free program.  It will be delivered online, so students can complete the coursework from any location.  JPMorgan Chase employs 20,000 technology employees in the United States and will actively recruit graduates of the school to fill open roles. 

    For more information about the program, go to www.veterans.syr.edu. Further details on enrollment will be available on chasemilitary.com in the coming weeks. 

    Veterans Advisory Council
    Chase is forming a Veterans Advisory Council to advise the firm on these programs and other ways we can help the military and veteran community.  The Council will be chaired by Tom Higgins, JPMorgan Chase's head of Operational Control and Veterans Affairs.  Tom recently joined the firm after 24 years with the US Government.  During his career in public service, he worked closely with all branches of the armed forces and served in the US Navy.  He has a deep understanding of the unique issues facing our servicemen and women, particularly as they leave and return from active duty. 

    Enhanced SCRA Controls
    Chase has already made several changes to our services and products for military customers, including a dedicated hotline for military customers staffed by a unit of experts that is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.  We have greatly enhanced controls to ensure that loans are properly categorized, SCRA protection periods are identified, and multiple verifications are done and documented to confirm that borrowers are not SCRA-eligible. 

    Chase is pleased to announce that Maggie Belknap has been named head of SCRA oversight across the firm.  Ms. Belknap is a retired Colonel and the former head of Economics and Finance on the faculty at West Point.  She is also a West Point graduate and served in the army from 1981 - 2008, including a tour of combat duty in Desert Storm I.  She joined JPMorgan Chase in 2008 and is currently Head of Global Operations Control Management for Treasury Services.      
                                                                                                                                                                                                            
     "We will continue to monitor vigilantly how we serve military and veteran customers and will not be satisfied until we are 100% convinced that we are doing the right thing in every case," said Charlie Scharf, CEO of Retail Financial Services. "We understand we have breached the trust of some of our military customers and we know we need to work hard to earn it back, and we are deeply committed to doing that.  We want to work with the military community as partners going forward to become the best company in any industry to serve our military heroes."

    "Our men and women in the military protect this country and our way of life every day," said Frank Bisignano, Chief Administrative Officer of JPMorgan Chase, responsible for Chase Home Lending.  "They deserve special status and benefits for the privilege they give us to live freely.  As part of making this right for our military customers, we will help them to own a home, pay down their debt, get training and find a job.  And that's just the beginning."

    Any military borrower who has a question about a Chase loan should call our hotline numbers at:

    • Mortgage questions:  877-469-0110
    • Credit Card questions: 888-520-3863
    • All other consumer product questions:  800-242-7399
  • Mubarak could leave with $2 billion

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    If Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak is forced into exile, he is likely to have access to billions in assets. But if Egypt’s successor government tries to recover any of it, it will have a hard time, if history is any judge.

    Estimates circulated inside the U.S. government, developed by various agencies, put  Mubarak’s wealth at between $2 billion and $3 billion.  How much of that total is outside of Egypt, and in what form, is uncertain. How much is recoverable is an even smaller fraction.

    AP reported that some in Egypt believed Mubarak controlled $70 billion in assets, but U.S. officials dismissed that number as wildly exaggerated. They noted that Bill Gates, the richest man on the Forbes 400 list, is worth $53 billion.

    Nick Peck, Head of Complex Investigations of Nardello & Co., worked in a similar position with Kroll Associates when that company was hired by Kuwait to track Saddam Hussein’s wealth. He’s also familiar as well with Kroll’s attempts to track, and recover, the wealth looted from the Philippines by the Marcos family.

    “The initial numbers are often very overblown,” says Peck. “Often suspect in terms of how much the official has.”

    Officials say historically most of the assets controlled by dictators remains within their home countries. Peck pointed to a stash of millions of dollars in cash and gold bars found hidden underground in Iraq following the war.

    “Always concerned about their own security, they like to keep an amount liquid in their own country,” says Peck. “But if he’s planning long term, for a future outside the country, a dictator will think, ‘Let me stuff some in Swiss bank or a Panamanian nominee account.’”

    Indeed, finding the hard currency or the gold bars at home is nowhere near as difficult as tracking paper and real assets overseas. Peck points out that the Marcos family invested heavily in midtown Manhattan real estate, while Saddam held tens of millions of dollars in public stock in European companies. The Shah of Iran used a family foundation to acquire a Fifth Avenue office building.

    Proving ownership, says Peck, is difficult.

    “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s likely a duck, but that often doesn’t meet the legal threshold to seize that asset,” he notes. “It’s a tough battle to prove it. There are nominee accounts," accounts in another person's name, "but no bank savings book. What you’ll almost never find is a deposed leader’s name linked to accounts.”

    Peck says he also heard reports while investigating Saddam that certain events would trigger asset transfers from financial institutions in western locales to more obscure institutions.

    There are other common denominators, says Peck. Often times, a trusted family member and/or confidante is located overseas near the assets. Saddam’s half-brother, Barzan al-Tikriti, controlled Saddam’s overseas assets from an office in Geneva. (Barzan, like his half-brother, was hanged by the Iraqi government for crimes against humanity unrelated to his investments.)

    “What people have to understand is there are no shortcuts," Peck said. "It's time consuming and requires some degree of luck in getting the right sources to successfully identify the stolen assets."

    In another country in transition, Tunisia's provisional cabinet on Thursday adopted a battery of "practical mechanisms" to enable it to recover assets of figures of the ousted regime, the country’s official news agency said.

    Once recovered, "the smuggled and plundered funds and assets" will be used for the development of mainly poorer areas in the country, it said.

     

  • Does Egypt make al-Qaida irrelevant?

    Reuters file

    Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has not been heard from since the Egyptian protests began.

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer
    for special projects

    Two weeks into the Egyptian revolution, there’s been no communiqué, no message from the hills of the Pakistani hinterland. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have been notably silent.

    For years, the two have regularly spoken in audio and video messages about events and trends in the Muslim World, attempting to continue their legacy as leaders of radical Islam. Now with Egypt, al-Zawahiri’s home turf, in turmoil, shouldn’t they have issued something?

    An al-Zawahiri aide did release a statement last weekend but it was short and not broadcast. Moreover, the deputy, Thirwat Shehata, was forced to admit that his and al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad have had no role in the uprising. “Indeed, the Pharaoh and his rotten party must depart, ” Shehata’s statement said.

    But Shehata is not al-Zawahiri or bin Laden, NBC News analyst and former NSC official Roger Cressey said, adding that without something directly from them, the two “are in danger of becoming the ‘emperors with no clothes’.” Moreover, the lack of an al-Qaida role or even a message was undercutting their influence.


     

    “I think it’s curious why they haven’t. Al-Qaida needs to inject itself. It’s been presented with an opportunity to be supportive of their narrative,” Cressey said.

    One reason, according to analysts inside and outside the U.S. government, could be the declining security situation in northeast Pakistan where both are believed to be hiding.

    Weeks pass and still nothing
    Getting a message out will often take a week to 10 days and involve a network of couriers. Egypt’s revolution is still only two weeks old. But others point out that the first demonstrations in Tunisia began nearly a month ago … and still nothing.

    “They may be working on it,” one counter terrorism analyst inside the U.S. government said. “They operate on their own timetable, not ours. Just because we expect one, doesn’t mean they feel that way.”

    He and others noted that the frequency of statements by al-Zawahiri and bin Laden had dropped off significantly in the last year, which they attribute to the ramped up use of Predators and other armed unmanned aerial vehicles by the U.S.

    Starting in the middle of 2008, the U.S. has carried out 200 or so strikes. They’ve killed some 1,300 militants. Attacks have increased dramatically under President Obama. The strikes have gone from about 35 in 2008 to 50 in 2009 and 115 last year, said a U.S. official.

    “They may simply be hunkered down,” added the counter-terrorism official.

    “These attacks are not just aimed at thwarting operations,” said Cressey. “They are aimed at preventing them from getting out their message.”

    Beyond personal safety — and delays in transmitting a message, often by hand, from secure locations to trusted computers — there may be political considerations.

    Evan Kohlmann, another NBC News analyst who tracks radical Islamic forums, said it’s less personal safety or logistics that have kept bin Laden and al-Zawahiri off the air.

    “I think they are sitting and watching what happens before jumping the gun ... they call it the benefit of hindsight,” Kohlmann said.

    Bruce Riedel, a former high ranking CIA official with a long history in the Middle East, wrote last week that al-Zawahiri “probably also has very mixed feelings about what is going on in his homeland.”

    “No doubt he welcomes Mubarak’s demise,” he added. “He has called for the Egyptian leader’s overthrow for three decades. But al-Qaida and Zawahiri know they have been bypassed in the streets of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria. This is not their revolution and they are not its inspiration. They may try to jump on the bandwagon but this is not their caravan.”

    Peaceful protest seems to work
    The U.S. official said he doesn’t disagree, adding al-Zawahiri may be “nervous” that his whole life’s work may be at risk.

    “He’s worked a lifetime on this and gotten nothing. It’s the demonstrators who are effecting regime change,” he said.

    Cressey added, “Each day’s demonstration shows how irrelevant al-Qaida’s philosophy is because it (al-Qaida philosophy) is based on violence. But al-Qaida had nothing to do with this.”

    And, the U.S. analysts said, this could lead to opportunities for the United States.

    “People see that with patience, consistency and commitment, you can change things,” said the U.S. official. “If there is a peaceful transition, it’s a huge blow to their al-Qaida philosophy, and it follows Tunisians being able to do the same thing. It proves you don’t have to go to Pakistan to carry out a suicide bombing. You can protest.”

    Riedel wrote even the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics was unlikely to change the perspective that this is a “disaster” for al-Qaida.

    “They have denounced the Brotherhood for years for participating in Mubarak’s rigged elections and for advocating change through non-violence,” Riedel wrote. “Both Zawahiri and bin Laden were once members ... but long ago they left it because it would not support their use of terror. To see the Brotherhood now playing a significant role in changing Egypt is a major setback for al-Qaida.” 

    Further reading: Who is Ayman al-Zawahiri?

    Update: Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) has published a new written statement appealing “to the Muslims in beloved Egypt.”  In its message, the ISI urged protesters in Egypt to wage violent jihad against the Mubarak regime and avoid “malicious secularism” and “infidel democracy.”

     

  • U.S. and Israel trust Egypt's VP, but do Egyptians?

    REUTERS/Loay Abu Haykel

    Omar Suleiman, Egyptian intelligence chief and vice president

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer
    for special projects

    Increasingly, the U.S. is placing its trust in Omar Suleiman’s ability to serve as an intermediary between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and those calling for democracy in the Arab world’s most populous nation.

    But while Suleiman, the longtime intelligence chief and new Egyptian vice president, has long been a favorite of U.S. and Israeli officials, his animosity toward some in the Egyptian resistance may make it difficult to serve as a go-between.

    According to reports out of the White House, the U.S. sees Suleiman as the best short-term solution, one in which there is both real change and political stability, a difficult job with virtually all sides calling for Mubarak to step down.

    Typical of the effusive praise U.S. officials have lavished on Suleiman over the years is this excerpt from former CIA Director George Tenet, in his 2007 memoir, “At the Center of the Storm.”

    “Omar Suleiman has been head of the Egyptian intelligence service for many years. A general as well as an intelligence chief, Umar is tall and regal looking, a very powerful man, very deliberate in his speech. He’s also tough and engaging. In a world filled with shadows, he is straight up and down,” Tenet stated as he wrote about the Middle East peace process.

    “Umar has also done as much behind the scenes as anyone else I can think of to try to bring peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis,” he added. 

    “That was true when the United States was still engaged in the process. It’s even more so now that we are long gone from it. When nobody was trying to go see Hamas, when nobody was talking to the Palestinians, when nobody was talking to the Israelis, when nobody was pushing forward with innovative ideas to try to get people talking to each other, Umar was on the ground taking risks,” he continued.

    At many of the meetings Tenet had with Suleiman, his then chief of staff, John Brennan, was present.  Brennan, who learned Arabic in Cairo, is now President Obama’s highly trusted counterterrorism adviser and plays an increasingly larger role in National Security Council discussions on Egypt.

    More recently, Suleiman was credited by U.S. and Israeli officials with keeping arms out of Gaza.  Suleiman also often carried messages from Israel and the U.S. to Hamas.

    The week before the revolt began in Cairo, in fact, Suleiman was quoted as warning Hamas that unless it released an Israeli soldier it would face serious consequences. 

    The Jerusalem Post reported on Jan. 29 that Suleiman warned Hamas that he expected “a massive operation” against Hamas in Gaza unless IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, held in Gaza for almost two years, is released.

    While the U.S. and Israel trust him, there are indications that at least one party in the Egyptian opposition does not.

    Mark Hosenball of Reuters reported this weekend that U.S. diplomatic documents published by WikiLeaks show that Suleiman has long sought to demonize the opposition Muslim Brotherhood in his contacts with skeptical U.S. officials.

    According to a February 2006 diplomatic cable, Suleiman accused the Muslim Brotherhood of spawning “11 different Islamist extremist organizations,  most notably the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Gama'a Islamiya (Islamic Group).″ 

    The same month, in another cable, he is quoted as describing as “unfortunate” the Muslim Brotherhood’s success in recent parliamentary elections and suggesting Egypt needs new measures to restrain them.

    Suleiman met this week with two representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood as part of a larger meeting with protest leaders and prominent Egyptians.

    After Suleiman described the meeting as a productive negotiation, other participants denounced his account as a ploy to taint them as collaborators.

    While U.S. officials quoted in the WikiLeaks cables admit the Muslim Brotherhood has among its membership “extremists both we and the Egyptian government oppose, Egyptian authorities have a long history of threatening us with the MB bogeyman.″

    Who is Omar Suleiman? There's more in the video below from msnbc TV:
     

    Columbia University Prof. Rashid Khalidi shares his insight on the newly-appointed vice president of Egypt.

  • What do we know about Egypt's arsenal?

    By Robert Windrem
    NBC News investigative producer for special projects

    NBC News has obtained more than a dozen documents from the United States, Russia and Israel that shed some light on several Egyptian weapons of mass destruction programs, including its nuclear potential and details of a joint North Korean-Egyptian missile development agreement.

    The documents, stretching back two decades, reveal an Egyptian commitment to research and development of WMDs, the acronym for weapons of mass destruction that thrust itself into the common lexicon during the Iraq war. They also reveal that Cairo is interested in nuclear and radiological weapons, though the extent of that interest is far from clear.

    The U.S. has long known about but tolerated because of Egypt’s central role in both the Middle East peace talks and counterterrorism. To quote one congressional expert on arms proliferation, "If they were any other Arab state, we would be all over them every day on these issues."

    Related story: Concerns grow over Egypt's WMD research

    At the same time, U.S., Israeli and Russian officials have expressed concerns that the Egyptian weapons programs — particularly its missile expertise – has the potential to destabilize the relative peace that has reigned in the Middle East for several decades. Despite these concerns, the officials say, Egypt has continued to work on many of these programs.

    Egyptians have defended its development of WMDs as a necessary counterbalance to Israel's weapons capabilities, which are daunting even to the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with the Jewish state. With an estimated 200 nuclear warheads — bigger than Great Britain’s arsenal — and 100 medium-range missiles, Israel is in a world of diminishing nuclear programs, a regional superpower — at least.

    Here is a breakdown on the Egyptian programs, drawn from the U.S., Russian and Israeli documents, all of which were either publicly disseminated or declassified under the Freedom of Information Act: 

    Nuclear proliferation
    The most revealing document in the trove is a Jan. 28, 1993, report by the Foreign Intelligence Service, the KGB's successor organization. The report, titled “Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction,” was issued at a time of extraordinary public openness in Russia and has not been updated since.

    The report stated that while Egypt had "no special program of military-applied research in the nuclear sphere" at the time, it had made significant advances on nuclear technology.

    Among other things, it said Egypt had:

    • Built a research reactor at Inshas, north of Cairo, built with help from Argentina.
    • Contracted with Russia to supply a MGD-20 cyclotron accelerator, which would be helpful in exploring uranium enrichment technologies.
    • Begun construction of a facility at its Inshas research center that “in its design features and engineering protection could in the future be used to obtain weapons-grade plutonium from the uranium irradiated in the research reactors."

    In addition, NBC News obtained a U.S. Customs Service account of a debriefing of an Egyptian-American spy, Abdel Kadr Helmy. Helmy, who was jailed in the 1980s for trying to obtain various missile technologies  including Pershing-II guidance packages – said in the interviews that Egypt had an active nuclear weapons development program that included sending uranium to Pakistan for enrichment to bomb-grade levels. He also said that an Egyptian Brigadier General, Ahmad Nashet, ran both the civilian nuclear establishment in Cairo as well as the nascent bomb program.

    Helmy subsequently disavowed the claim, and Egypt has steadfastly denied interest in nuclear weapons.

    Chemical weapons
    The Egyptians are also interested in chemical weapons. Specifically, the FIS document notes: "Techniques of the production of nerve-paralyzing and blister-producing toxic agents have been assimilated."

    Furthermore, the FIS said, "There is information to the effect that Egypt is displaying interest in purchases overseas of warheads intended for filling with liquid chemical warfare agents. The stockpiles of toxic substances available at this time are insufficient for broad-based operations, but the industrial potential would permit the development of the additional production in a relatively short time." It may be that the warheads the Russians discussed were ultimately bound for Iraq. 

    Biological weapons
    Similarly, the Egyptians have a biological weapons program, according to statements from the FIS, the CIA and the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency dating back to the 1990s.

    "At the start of the 1970s," the FIS report stated, "President Sadat confirmed this, announcing the presence in Egypt of a stockpile of biological agents stored in refrigerating plants. Toxins of varying nature are being studied and techniques for their production and refinement are being developed at the present time in a (unnamed) national research center."

    In response to a question during a congressional hearing on WMD proliferation on Feb. 24, 1993, CIA Director R. James Woolsey confirmed that Egypt is counted as a nation with biological weapons capability.

    And in three annual reports to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 1995, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency has used the same language to assess the Egyptian program: "The United States believes that Egypt had developed biological agents by 1972. There is no evidence to indicate that Egypt has eliminated this capability and it remains likely that the Egyptian capability to conduct biological warfare continues to exist."

    What is intriguing about these reports is that, unlike a similar report in 1994, they did not include this sentence: "The United States however has not, however, obtained recent information on this program" — the implication being that the U.S. did receive information about the program starting in 1995, though it’s not clear what that information was.

    Missiles
    The area where Egypt excels is in missile development.

    The FIS report noted: "By 1990, Egypt's missile forces were armed with a regiment each of Soviet Scud-B (with a range of 300 kilometers) and Frog 7 (70 km) transporter-erector-launchers and also a certain quantity of Sakr 80 and Sakr 365 Egyptian-Iraqi-North Korean short-range missiles. It is technically possible to fit the Scud and Frog warheads with chemical weapons.”

    The report also noted that China had reached an agreement with Egypt to assist in modernizing a manufacturing plant to build “new modifications of the Scud B-class missiles and three domestic types of Egyptian surface-to-surface missiles."

    A 1992 Israeli Defense Forces memorandum on Mideast missile programs provided this appraisal of the Egyptian program aimed at acquiring and supporting ground-to-ground missiles, or GGM in weapons-speak:

    "During the 1950s, and aided by German Nazi scientists, a concerted effort was made to build factories which would manufacture missiles,” it said. “This effort continued over the years; at present the Egyptian army diverts resources to this endeavor.”

    The memo said that the Egyptian program was focused on the Scud, and that North Korea was its main ally. In the early 1980s, it said, North Korea bought tens of Russian-made medium-range Scud-B missiles from the Egyptians and, in exchange, helped the Egyptians set up the infrastructure for missile production and assembly. The Egyptian factories are said to have begin active production in 1993.

    An even bigger concern among foreign intelligence services is the medium-range Condor II missile program, a joint project of Egypt, Argentina and Iraq.

    In congressional testimony on April 18, 1991, U.S. Customs Service agent Daniel Burns stated that Abdelkader Helmy, the Egyptian-American rocket scientist who had pleaded guilty to helping Egypt obtain equipment and material for the Condor-II missile discussed with him several projects, including an “Egyptian effort to develop a nuclear warhead, including the Cobalt-60 effort and the purchase of uranium from France."

    Helmy’s statement is of particular concern as Cobalt-60, a radioactive isotope that could be used in a radiological or "dirty" bomb, which disperses radioactive material on detonation.

    As stated above, Helmy later disavowed the statement and returned to Egypt. Egypt has denied any interest in nuclear weapons.

  • Crowd counts: Finding a scientific method

    From Woodstock to the Million Man March to the Egyptian rallies in Tahrir Square, journalists and officials have struggled to count the number of people in a crowd.

    Here's a link back to a piece on the science of counting a crowd, published on msnbc.com before the inauguration of President Barack Obaama:

    When people gather in vast numbers, 'official' estimates often run wild

    The author is Steve Doig, who for decades has done reality-based crowd-counting for festivals, political rallies, bowl parades and other events. He is a professor at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. During a 20-year career as a reporter at the Miami Herald, he specialized in data analysis, and contributed to Pulitzer Prize-winning work on Hurricane Andrew.