The war against al-Qaida is at a “critical moment” as the “much weaker” terrorist group looks to regroup in Africa, according to the author of a new report.

Valentina Soria, a counterterrorism research analyst at U.K. think-tank RUSI, told msnbc.com by telephone that the network had been damaged by the death of Osama bin Laden and other leading figures.

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Her report, titled “Global Jihad Sustained Through Africa,” which was published at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday, said al-Qaida’s leadership was looking for partnerships with like-minded organizations in parts of Africa – such as al-Shabab and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb -- to “regroup and re-energize itself.”

West 'unsighted' by shift
Soria told msnbc.com that the war on terror was at a key point, as while al-Qaida was weaker, Western counterterrorism officials had been “unsighted” by the apparent shift to Africa.

“I think it’s certainly an important junction, a critical moment because obviously counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan … and Yemen have been quite successful in decapitating the organization [al-Qaida], a lot of important figures have been removed,” Soria said.

“There is no doubt the organization is much weaker than it was a few years ago,” she added.

The report said that “despite greater co-operation, there seems to be an unresolved tension between transnational aims of al-Qaida-core and the local grievances of African partners.”

It added it was unclear whether al-Qaida was making a “conscious effort” to regroup in the Horn of Africa and sub-Saharan Africa or if this was the result of “displacement” and cooperation on an “ad hoc basis.”

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Islamist militant group al-Shabab, which operates in Somalia, has merged with al-Qaida’s core group, a move “officially endorsed” by al-Qaida’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in February of this year.

'Arc of regional instability'
The report noted that U.S. counterterrorism officials had been voicing concern about the prospect of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which is based in Algeria, using local instability and weak or absent government to expand its zone of influence.

“If correct, this assessment would raise the worrying prospect of an arc of regional instability encompassing the whole Sahara-Sahel strip and extending to east Africa, which the now weakened al-Qaida-core could well exploit to regroup, reorganize and reinvigorate its terrorist campaign in the West,” the report said.

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 “[Al-Qaida] appears to be adopting a strategy of ‘going native,’ which implies seizing upon and exploiting local grievances with the ultimate aim of securing a stable foothold in volatile countries,” the report said.

The report said that counterterrorism officials “privately acknowledge that they are unsighted” and are “working hard to understand how far the jihadist challenge may be migrating” to Somalia, Kenya, north Nigeria and parts of West Africa.

“From West to East Africa, across the Sub-Saharan region, we may well be witnessing a new phase of decisive developments that could trigger further turmoil,” the report said.

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An al-Qaida propaganda outlet has released a new video featuring al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and the leader of Somalia’s Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, apparently indicating that the latter group has been formally incorporated into the umbrella terror organization. 

The video distributed by al-Qaida’s “As-Sahab Media” shows al-Zawahiri, who ascended to al-Qaida's top post after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011, addressing the camera. Al-Shabaab leader, Mukhtar Abu az-Zubeir is shown in a photo and heard offering a “bayat,” or oath of allegiance, to al-Zawahiri.

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Evan Kohlmann, an NBC News terrorism analyst, said the two men are not seen together in the tape and that it appears al Zawahiri and az-Zubeir recorded their comments separately and that they were then were edited together. 

According to a translation provided by Kohlmann, al-Zawahiri said in the tape, "Today I bring glad tidings to our Muslim Ummah (community), happy tidings that please the believers and displeases the crusaders, which is the joining of Shabaab al-Mujahideen in Somalia to Qaida't al-Jihad in support of the Jihad unity in the face of the Zionist-crusader campaign and their helpers of cooperatives traitor rulers who brought in the crusader invasive forces to their countries." 

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The implications of a formal link between al-Shabaab and al-Qaida would be worrisome, considering that as many as 50 American citizens are believed to be members of al-Shabaab in Somalia and at least three are known to have carried out suicide bombings inside that east African nation.  (In addition, another 150 Europeans and others who wouldn't require a visa to enter the U.S. belong to al-Shabaab.) 

It also may indicate that al-Qaida, decimated by predator drone attacks and the Osama Bin Laden raid, is seeking new recruits for its operations.  

This is the first video of al-Zawahiri in more than two months. In the last video, issued on Dec. 1, boasted that al-Qaida had seized aid worker Warren Weinstein, a 70-year-old American, in Lahore, Pakistan, last August. There's been no further word on whether Weinstein remains alive since then.